Views

Politics-domestic: Down the road, I'm sure Erap will be granted an Executive Clemency and he may not have to serve his full sentence. The way politics works here, an executive pardon to a beloved former president will sit extremely well with the voting masses.

Politics-foreign: There seems to be no end in sight to the troubles in Iraq. The world's only superpower is unable to control it. And despite having all satellite security cameras and radar screens scouring the hinterlands of Afghanistan for Osama bin Laden, the US has been unable to find him.

Economics-domestic: Oil prices are testing the US$80/barrel mark. Inflationary pressures are again on top of the agenda. In our case, the inevitable price rises in consumer goods can be tempered by a still-strong currency. However, the same may not be true for interest rates. Excess liquidity arising from strong remittance inflows and upward trends in global oil prices may prompt monetary authorities to use interest rates to tame inflation. If you paid any attention at all to my notes on economic indicators, I have always maintained that interest rates were likely to rise. It is now at 3%++ from about 2.75%.

Economics-foreign: Good thing the sub-prime hasn't had much impact here. Maybe because we don't have a sovereign fund to speak of, unlike say, Temasek of Singapore, and the billion-dollar investment funds of the oil-rich Gulf States, or China, which holds the world largest dollar reserves at US$1 trillion plus. The issue hasn't really fully played itself out and you can still expect downward pressures in the equities and credit markets when the quarterly results come in. Perhaps exposures to sub-prime weren't really that significant, after all, although some big firms really took a big hit. Or perhaps the provisioning levels provided adequate cover.