First Job

The first job I got after stepping out of the academic confines of the State University carried an impressive title of Business Analyst. When I applied for it, I didn’t exactly know what the job was, but it required writing lots of business reports. I fancied myself arriving in the office with my tie on as my sexy secretary greets me and hands me my coffee.

“Would you like me to get the morning paper for you, sir?” she would ask me, meekly.

I’d say, “Yes, please. You are so kind”. It was my plan to be deferential and nice to my staff. I was determined to live and think like a young urban professional, a yuppie to the core.

I planned my career with high hopes, hopes that have been severely challenged.

In my mind, I’d spend Friday nights in cocktail bars talking business with colleagues and business associates. “Do you think inflationary pressures would force the Central Bank to raise interest rates anew?” I would ask them, still brimming with confidence after getting a grade of 2.00 in Monetary Theory.

Instead, I found myself outside the office eating fish balls out of barbecue sticks and a bowl of porridge from an ambulant vendor.

You see, I found out later my prestigious job title really carried the rather unglamorous responsibilities of a Credit Investigator, or CI. I couldn’t possibly have a secretary. I didn’t even have my own computer and phone in my desk! I had to share it with several people.

I conducted lifestyle checks, credit histories and property verification. I did discreet interviews with neighbors on the street. I pretended to sell insurance over the phone. I once said I was conducting survey for the government.

Some people slammed the phone when I called them. A few even have the guts to call me names, demanding to know why I was investigating them when they haven’t stolen anything. One Chinese trader even tore the letter of introduction I gave him, accusing me of working for a competitor.

I lost count of the number of times I got lost because bystanders and policemen pointed me towards wrong directions. I found myself walking along the flooded streets of Malabon during high tide. I dozed off inside a passenger jeepney in the middle of a monstrous traffic jam in Novaliches. There was also a time when I couldn’t find my way out of a squatter’s area which resembled a maze.

I also found routes I never even thought existed, like the short-cut from Fairview in Quezon City to Montalban, Rizal, passing through rough roads near the Payatas dumpsite. I was lucky. My colleague, Ricky, once spent the night on Talim Island in the middle of Laguna de Bay, off the coast of Binagonan, because the outrigger boat or banca that was supposed to take him back already left without him.

There were uplifting moments, though. Some were nice enough to treat to me out to lunch, some offered me a ride. Others acted as if I were a long-lost friend, shaking my hands vigorously and enthusiastically asking me how I was. There were some who shared their life stories as if I were Kuya Eddie.

How I ended up doing all these after devouring articles in the Econometrica and other similar academic journals I barely understood, I don’t really know. I stayed for two years.

As my paddling team mate John once told me, the same oven that melts the wax, hardens the clay. Indeed. Because of it, I am now ten times a better researcher, which suits my current occupation. I learned to adjust myself to different situations, to read people’s minds and to anticipate their reactions. And I don’t easily get offended now. I’m made of sterner stuff.

As my former colleague Jasmin (who’s shifted careers and is now a nurse) and I would often kid each other, “Once a CI, always a CI”.

Opera Kid

Why a prepubescent kid no more than 12 years old would ever attempt Mozart's "Revenge Aria" from the Magic Flute, a killer aria even for competent coloratura sopranos, is beyond me.

This is so hilarious and creepy at the same time. He hit the two(2) F's above high C.

His voice is so high, it makes me wonder whether he is a castrato.

BRAHMS: Piano Concerto No. 1 in D Minor

Brazilian Pianist Nelson Freire interprets Johannes Brahms' hyper-romantic Piano Concerto No. 1 in D Minor with the NHK Symphony. Freire used to be a top-notch pianist, frequently teaming up with the indefatigable Martha Argerich for piano duo recitals. I still have a DVD copy of their Rachmaninoff and Ravel recording for two pianos. Maybe old age has indeed caught up with him. His rendition is slower than what I am used to, even phlegmatic at times, and I miss the fire and the devil-may-care virtousity characteristic of his earlier years. But I still like his musicality. He kept a tight lid on sentimentality and made it sound lyrical, not so much romantic, unlike most pianists when they try to interpret Brahms.

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5

What I like about this concerto is that the orchestra plays not just a supporting role to the soloist but is seamlessly woven into the whole fabric of the concerto. It holds its own, especially in the first movement.

Typical of Brahms, the first movement is grandiloquent and majestic, with passionate passages immediately unleashed after a few introductory bars. Followed by a light, dreamy and tender adagio second movement. It feels like you're sitting under a tree during breezy summer afternoons, idly waiting for nothing. The final movement jolts the listener out of reverie with fiery outbursts in staccato octaves for a truly electrifying close.

Incipient Signs

I haven’t seen this level for a very long time: The Phisix hit 3,244 this morning on hefty volumes valued at around PhP6.2 billion (the daily average recently has been PhP2-3bn). I mentioned before that should the index reach 3,000, the market would likely enter a bull run. The trend is quite clear: high buying volumes consistently for the past year have pushed the market upwards to levels last seen only in the early 1990s.

With the current low interest rate environment (3-4% 90-day T-bills, the lowest in recent memory) and a strong peso (US$/PhP48.84) as well as a strong balance of payments (BOP) surplus position (US$3.8 billion), equities currently benefit from the shifting allegiance of large funds away from government bonds such as Treasury bills.

Good economic fundamentals (NEDA estimates 5.3%-5.6% GDP growth for 2006) point to a better year ahead for corporates. Low interest rates means lower borrowing costs for companies; low inflation also translates to lower production costs; while a strong peso benefits manufacturing companies with higher import production component. Listed companies will likely generate better margins this year.

Caveats: I would restrict my investment horizon to a short-term basis-- from hereon until just before the elections-- for two (2) reasons: (1) Election spending is very inflationary. Money supply has already expanded by 18% last year, exceeding the monetary authorities’ target of only 12%. Elections could aggravate that, putting pressure on interest rates to rise; (2) conduct of the elections. No major disruptions such as coups, a military take-over or another people power, please, since these would only serve to undermine the country’s financial gains. A wrong move and foreign investors, who dominate the market, may easily move out in droves as well, pushing the market back into the dustbin.

I’m pretty sure at some point the Bangko Sentral (BSP) will have to raise the interest rates perhaps after the elections, to mop up excess liquidity.

In addition, I hope Gloria vetoes the wage bill, or at least make it realistic. Drastic increases in wages which cannot be realistically matched by equally drastic increases in the country’s gross output will only result in higher inflation. It is so obvious I do not understand how this bill could have passed the scrutiny of Congress.

Why listen to communist relics in Congress, like Casiño and Beltran, self-styled Che Guevaras and die-hard proponents of a bankrupt ideology, who know zilch, nada, zero about economics and who probably think this country should emulate Cuba or North Korea?

Bull Run?

Writing non-stop for over an hour, I suddenly hit a brick wall, my train of thought disrupted by Jacques Torres’ paella and bouillabaisse cooking in his hometown in Provence, featured on the Lifestyle Channel. I’ll resume writing tomorrow morning at 4 a.m. I hope God wakes me up at that hour, I simply ignored the alarm this morning.

The equities market has exceeded the 3,000 index. My gad, I think there’s a bull run. Volumes have been quite heavy, averaging PhP2-3 billion daily, since last year. I gained a respectable 25% on SM Investments (over a one-year period) and recently, 56% on PNOC-EDC (I bought it only last month). I wasn’t able to buy much because the International Finance Corporation bought US$50 million worth of shares, crowding out small-time retail investors like me.

I am plunking my hard-earned money on the additional share price offering of FLI this first week of February. Why FLI (Filinvest Land)? Interest rates are currently low, which means amortization rates remain attractive. In addition, OFW remittances are hitting record levels. OFWs are becoming a major market for housing projects and condominium projects. With the deployment of more professionals such as nurses, engineers and IT personnel overseas, the money remitted back usually goes into real estate, education, or cars.

I expect FLI share prices to rise significantly. The company has a good track record in developing quality housing projects. It managed to keep its head above water even during the height of the financial crisis in the late nineties.

I am also aware that foreign brokerage houses are beefing up their staff, which means foreign investors may come back again in droves, especially after the elections in May.

The peso has strengthened so much, such that government economic managers took advantage of this to pre-pay some of our sovereign debt owed to multi-lateral institutions. A credit upgrade is likely, which would translate into better confidence in the market, resulting in an inflow of portfolio funds into equities.

The peso’s strength has affected me negatively, with the kind of work I do. I have to look for other avenues to boost my income.

Hiking Wages

The PhP125 peso across-the-board legislated daily wage hike, although still up for final approval in the Senate, does raise some eyebrows. Politically, it would ensure the survival of people in Congress and the Senate, as this populist move would sit very well with the workers.

The additional labor cost is estimated to be around PhP1.2 trillion (for the 12 million or so workers in the country), however, staggered over a period of three years. But can private business really afford this much increase in their manpower cost in such a short time? I seriously doubt it.

Wages normally get adjusted every year to account for inflation. However, it is periodically adjusted upwards to reflect gains in productivity as well. Drastically increasing wages without matching increases in productivity can only be inflationary.

Why, because growth in money supply on account of the strong demand for money to pay for the additional wages, will only exceed output growth.

Naturally, big business groups are one in opposing the move, as this would prove to be counter-productive in the long-run and will even make Philippine industries less competitive.

This can be salvaged however, like implementing the increases in a staggered basis over a longer period, six to maybe eight years. The adjustments to production would at least be gradual, giving time for both owners and laborers to make this work.

Updated Playlist

Here's the towering finger-breaker Sonata No. 3 Op. 28, by Sergei Prokofiev played on the piano by the Soviet-era pianist Emil Gilels. My brother and I used to watch Gilel's Tchaikovsky Piano Concerto No. 1 on DVD at home in Bohol.

An absolute favourite, here's Toccata Op. 7 by the suicidal Robert Schumann. On the piano is the young German pianist Martin Stadtfeld.

Also, here's Maurice Ravel's ravishing Jeux D'eau, interpreted splendidly by Martha Argerich.

Yundi Li, the 2000 Chopin Piano Competition winner, plays my all-time war horse, Chopin's Fantasie Impromptu in C-sharp Minor Op. 66.

Also from the recent Chopin competition, Rafal Blechacz plays the Polonaise in A-flat Op. 53.

I'm currently trying to learn this piece, the Chopin Ballade no. 1 in G Minor Op. 23. It's lyrical, romantic and passionate. Love every note of this piece. Ambrose sent me the score over the internet.