I think the coming elections will be a Noynoy-Villar fight. Let me explain.
I am convinced Noynoy will likely get the middle-to-upper income vote. His family hails from this income group. He is quiet, unassuming and Jesuit-educated. His reputation remains untarnished with neither corruption allegations nor cheating scandals. The Church likes that. The moralists like that, too. Big business groups sympathetic to Cory (think the Lopezes, the Ayalas, the Cojuangcos) will likely support his candidacy. So-called cause-oriented groups sick of Gloria, her family and her minions will throw in their support, too. Thing is, as of this point, all these groups are still talking among themselves and have not really engaged the broader electorate yet into the support bandwagon.
You see, it is the C-D-E classes that dominate this country, the masses. For Noynoy to take crack at the Presidency, he has to employ massive resources to appeal directly and effectively to these income groups. And he has a good chance, if the remaining crop of Presidential hopefuls insist on running.
Consider this: Villar (the frontrunner), Erap, Noli, Loren, Teodoro, Jamby and Bayani. That's seven candidates splitting the remaining pie. We can safely remove Jamby from the list because she is really just a nuisance candidate. Teodoro and Bayani may both be courting Gloria's anointment, but they should realize that her endorsement is a Kiss of Death--they should avoid her like the plague. The public had had enough of her. These two are goners, Teodoro is still totally unknown to most, and Bayani is only popular in Metro Manila. Jamby, Teodoro and Bayani's candidacies hardly cause a ripple.
So that really leaves us with four people running against Noynoy. Noli and Loren will not likely settle for the Veep position, having crossed swords for that position last time. Noli seems hesitant to take Gloria's endorsement. He correctly assumes that any association with Gloria will only jeopardize his chances. And Loren still has lots of energy for kidnapping and NPA peace deal photo ops as well as for attending enviroment-and-climate related international conferences to raise her Presidential profile. Nah, I think she will not make it this time. Too image and "stage effect" conscious.
Which leaves us with three vying for the masa vote. Erap, Villar and Noli. The key here is Erap. I think Erap is not really serious in running, or if he is, will be persuaded later on to give way to either Villar or Noynoy. He looks too infirm to run for public office (his best friend FPJ already died, yes?) and needs to just enjoy his retirement and spend his twilight years away from prison. He may simply be trying to stir the entire field. Whomever he will throw in his support later on, will likely be the President. Yes, I'm assuming this is going to be a Noynoy-Villar fight and Noli's gonna be relegated to the sidelines.
Villar: he has built a grassroots support early on. His self-made, rags-to-riches success story resonates with the C-D-E masa (he grew up in a shanty in Tondo). He has further consolidated his support base via the OFW vote. One out of every ten Filipinos after all, has a relative working abroad. That's significant. But the fact that, assuming he got Erap's endorsement, he still has to split the masa vote with Noli, Villar does have a lot of work to do.
Noynoy: He has the support of the Church, big business, cause-oriented groups- essentially middle class. But he also has Kris Aquino for a sister (and drags along with her, Boy Abunda, Mother Lily, Korina Sanchez and the entire ABS-CBN. By the way, she convinced Pangilinan to be her brother's official spokesperson, which means Sharon Cuneta is now in their bandwagon as well).
Strategies: Noynoy has to expand his support base from the middle class to the masa. This is where his sister comes in and the logistics and financial support of his rich backers. In fact, it works to his advantage if there are many candidates because this will only dilute the chances of his opponents.
Villar on the other hand, has to prevent Noynoy from encroaching on his masa support base. At this point, you can say he's really running against Kris Aquino. He also has to work hard to convince Erap to support him instead, considering that he has to split the masa vote with several other lesser candidates.
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